Building an ROI model for a greenhouse
What to put in the model, and which assumptions are the ones that decide the answer.
Capital cost
Structure, covering, climate, irrigation, electrical, civil works, installation, freight and contingency. A modern commercial facility typically lands in a wide band per square metre; the band moves with covering, climate systems and labour market.
Operating cost
Energy, labour, substrate and nutrients, crop protection, packaging, maintenance and finance cost. Energy is the line that moves most between two sites with the same house.
Revenue
Yield times price times pack-out, by month. A twelve-month price curve beats an annual average, because most projects fail in the two months nobody modelled.
Sensitivity
Test price −20 %, yield −15 %, energy +40 %. If the project only survives the base case, the base case is not a plan.
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